US forecasters are expecting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season , with 13 to 19 named storms, and 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes.

Every year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other forecasters release preseason outlooks for the Atlantic's hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

So, how do they know what's likely to happen months in the future?

I'm an atmospheric scientist who studies extreme weather. Let's take a look at what Atlantic hurricane forecasts are based on and why those forecasts can shift during the season.

What goes into a seasonal forecast

Think of the preseason hurricane forecast as the 30,000-foot view: It can't predict if or when a storm will hit a particular location, but it can offer insight into how many

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