As Parliament resumes its activities, the focus shifts to the government's agenda and the political maneuvers ahead. Key questions arise: How will the government address issues related to Trump and tariffs? What will Mark Carney's performance be like during Question Period? When will Pierre Poilievre return to the House? And how will the NDP navigate its lack of official party status?

In the coming weeks, significant developments may be limited. The Prime Minister is set to host the G7 summit in Kananaskis, and the House of Commons is scheduled to rise in late June. However, the real political intrigue is anticipated in the fall. The pressing question is whether the Liberal minority can transform into a majority, allowing them to secure four years of governance without the complications of opposition.

Currently, the Liberals hold 169 seats. This number could decrease following a recent recount in Newfoundland's Terra Nova—The Peninsulas, which flipped to the Conservatives. Additionally, if the courts mandate a byelection in Quebec's Terrebonne due to mail-in ballot issues, the Liberals could lose another seat to the Bloc Québécois, potentially reducing their total to 168. With Liberal MP Francis Scarpaleggia now serving as Speaker, the effective count for the Liberals stands at 167. The majority threshold is 172, meaning Carney would need to gain five more MPs to solidify power.

The situation is further complicated by the NDP's recent struggles. The party's failure to secure official status has been exacerbated by internal issues, including a botched interim leader selection process. This misstep prompted three NDP MPs to express their grievances in a letter, creating an opportunity for the Liberals to capitalize on the situation.

To entice NDP members to switch allegiance, the Liberals could offer significant policy concessions. One potential area of negotiation is pharmacare, with the possibility of expanding the list of covered medications beyond diabetes and birth control. During the election, former NDP leader Jagmeet Singh had promised to broaden coverage to include around 100 commonly prescribed drugs, such as antibiotics and cancer medications.

Additionally, the Liberals might target regional development funds to NDP-held ridings to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Foreign policy could also serve as a bargaining chip. The NDP has long advocated for Palestinian statehood and had previously pushed for recognition in the House of Commons. Last fall, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated that Canada was discussing this issue with allies. Recently, Carney issued a joint statement with leaders from Britain and France, affirming their commitment to recognizing a Palestinian state.

Speculation suggests that the Liberals may propose a resolution on this matter, which would likely pass if all seven NDP MPs supported it or if enough switched to the Liberal side. If the Liberals cannot secure enough support from the left, they may also consider courting disenchanted Conservatives. The Conservative Party is currently facing internal strife following its recent electoral loss, with many members expressing dissatisfaction with management. Reports indicate that a dozen Conservative MPs have called for the removal of campaign manager Jenni Byrne.

If Poilievre fails to address these concerns, some Conservative MPs may seek opportunities elsewhere, especially if they foresee a lengthy period in opposition. This summer's traditional barbeque circuit could take on a new dynamic, with the Liberals potentially seeking to recruit rather than just campaign for votes. Achieving a majority would not only diminish the NDP's influence but could also destabilize the Conservative Party, which may face further leadership challenges without the immediate threat of an election. The 45th session of Parliament is set to unfold with these high-stakes political maneuvers.