The opening lines in an April 11 farmdocDAILY post should have raised an eyebrow or two among farm bill geeks both in and out of Congress: “The U.S. crop safety net,” it begins, “has undergone a profound transformation.”

That’s a belt-high fastball for farm bill writers arguing over cuts in food aid programs instead of questioning the very foundation of farm program spending: Does the American farm safety net even work anymore?

The well-researched paper only requires two sentences to render its verdict: “From 1975 to 2006, crop safety net payments were negatively correlated, or countercyclical, with private market returns.”

That’s by design. Government support programs — crop insurance, ad hoc or emergency payments — kick in when market prices are low.

The inverse is also true; payment

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