Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), who is facing backlash over dismissive remarks and a sarcastic video she made about death and cuts to social safety net programs, now faces a rockier road to a third term, according to a noted elections handicapper's Tuesday update. Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted its rating for the 2026 Senate race in Iowa from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican" following Iowa Democratic state Rep. J.D. Scholten's entry in the race.

"Though this was not the most artful example of politicking that we’ve ever seen, Ernst’s comments alone also did not really tempt us to immediately move off our Safe Republican rating for her race," Crystal Ball analyst J. Miles Coleman wrote in the ratings revision. "However, earlier this week, Democrats got a more proven recruit in state Rep.

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