Reuters US Economy
By Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Wall Street wavered and U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday as investors monitored U.S. trade negotiations and looked ahead to Friday's critical employment report.
Tech pushed the Nasdaq modestly higher, while the S&P 500 ended the session essentially flat and the Dow closed slightly lower.
The dollar dipped and gold advanced.
"The big move in rates is providing a little bit of reprieve if not for stocks directly, at least for some of the bigger narratives around why rates were moving higher," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "There's a bit of relief from the equity markets that there still seems to be an upper range on where rates will go in this kind of environment."
U.S.-European trade talks are progressing, Europe's top negotiator said, noting that the doubling of U.S. metals tariffs, which kicked in on Wednesday, is not helping negotiations. China's curbs on critical mineral exports have distressed global automakers, who said shortages threaten to halt global supply chains.
With U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping likely to speak soon, Trump called Xi tough in a social media post and "extremely hard to make a deal with," suggesting a swift resolution of trade differences between the world's two largest economies could prove elusive.
"Investors are still confident, or at least as confident as they can be, that the administration is not going to let things get too bad. The low on April 8 is not a place that the administration will return to now," Mayfield added.
"I don't necessarily think that the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade is wrong; obviously it's a joke, but there's enough signage that suggests if the administration reverts back to some of their worst tendencies on trade and tariffs, then the market will react in kind," Mayfield said.
On the economic front, payrolls processor ADP reported the U.S. private sector added 37,000 jobs last month, or 69.2% fewer than analysts expect the Labor Department's more comprehensive employment report to show on Friday. Additionally, survey data showed the U.S. services sector slipped into contraction last month, while prices paid - an inflation predictor - hit the highest level since November 2022.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 91.90 points, or 0.22%, to 42,427.74, the S&P 500 rose 0.44 points, or 0.01%, to 5,970.81 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 61.53 points, or 0.32%, to 19,460.49.
European stocks advanced and Germany's benchmark index touched a record high after Berlin approved a corporate tax relief package, even as survey data showed euro zone business activity stalling and Germany's services sector posted its sharpest contraction in more than two years.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 2.85 points, or 0.32%, to 888.75.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.47%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index rose 9.84 points, or 0.45%
Emerging market stocks rose 14.71 points, or 1.27%, to 1,172.84. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed higher by 1.3% to 618.16, while Japan's Nikkei rose 300.64 points, or 0.80%, to 37,747.45.
The dollar dipped across the board as downbeat economic data suggested softening labor market conditions and the services sector dipping into contraction.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.29% to 98.87, with the euro up 0.36% at $1.1411.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.78% to142.87.
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields were lower after the softer-than-expected economic data as investors watched for signs of progress in tariff negotiations and looked ahead to the payrolls report.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 10.1 basis points to 4.359%, from 4.46% late on Tuesday.
The 30-year bond yield fell 10.2 basis points to 4.8806% from 4.983% late on Tuesday.
The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 8.6 basis points to 3.871%, from 3.957% late on Tuesday.
Crude prices turned lower as U.S. data showed larger-than-expected inventories, adding to supply concerns amid trade tensions and OPEC+ output increases.
U.S. crude dipped 0.88% to settle at $62.85 a barrel, while Brent settled at $64.86 per barrel, down 1.17% on the day.
Gold prices gained ground, supported by the soft dollar as investors bided their time for trade deals and employment data.
Spot gold rose 0.62% to $3,372.86 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.64% to $3,371.50 an ounce.
(Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; Editing by Tomasz Janowski, Will Dunham and Richard Chang)
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