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Here we are, nearly halfway through 2025, months into the second Trump administration, and the sky hasn’t fallen. Where is the calamity all those tariff naysayers ( hi! ) promised?

If it feels like nothing has changed, then congratulations, you do not work in manufacturing or shipping or run a business that relies on imports.

There are a few reasons why it feels like some early tariff warnings were overblown, but the most significant is this: Trump blinked . And blinked again. And blinked a few more times.

As things stand, we’re in a watered-down state of tariff implementation, in which markets have learned to not believe the presid

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