The redistricting wars are officially underway, and the outcome could determine whether Republicans keep control of the House after next year’s midterms.

Because of reforms in many blue states meant to make the process more “fair,” Republican-controlled legislatures generally have far more leeway to redraw maps mid-cycle.

That asymmetry is already playing out.

So far, the best-case scenario for Democrats based on news reports looks bleak: Republicans are expected to pick up at least three seats in Texas, three in Florida, and one each in Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri. Democrats could gain five seats in California, but additional efforts in states like New York and Maryland are unlikely to take effect before the midterms.

The net result: a four-seat Republican advantage before a single vo

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