New York Mets starting pitcher Clay Holmes (35) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia.

The Miami Marlins (62-71) and New York Mets (71-61) open a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Citi Field in Queens is set for 7:10 p.m ET (MLB Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 4-2

The Marlins dropped their home series to the Atlanta Braves, capped by a 12-1 loss in Wednesday’s finale. Atlanta outscored Miami 14-5 across the 3 games. The Marlins have faltered on the road lately, losing 10 of their last 14 away contests.

The Mets opened their 7-game homestand in style, sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies with a dominant 6-0 win Wednesday as -147 favorites. New York’s pitching and bats were locked in all series, outscoring the Phillies 25-8 across 3 games. The Mets have won 5 of their last 6 at Citi Field.

Marlins at Mets projected starters

RHP Adam Mazur vs. RHP Clay Holmes

Mazur (0-1, 6.35 ERA) makes his second start. The rookie allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks with 5 K's in 5 2/3 innings in his season debut, a 4-2 home loss vs. the Phillies June 18.

  • Was acquired July 30, 2024, from San Diego Padres
  • 2024 stats: 1-3, 7.49 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.81 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 8 starts with Padres
  • Career vs. Mets: 1 road start with Padres (June 15, 2024), loss, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 6 BB, 4 K in 5-1 defeat

Holmes (11-6, 3.60 ERA) is making his 27th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 137 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 9-2 victory at Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • 2025 home stats: 5-2, 3.84 ERA (70 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 13 starts
  • Last start vs. Marlins: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 10 K in 10-5 home victory April 8
  • Career vs. Marlins: 2-1, 4.05 ERA (20 IP, 9 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 11 appearances (2 starts)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Marlins at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (+105) | Mets -1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Marlins at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 7, Marlins 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mets (-250) are rolling, and they'll keep it going into Thursday's opener against the Marlins, but I'll take my wager to the run line with better odds.

Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (-125).

The Mets couldn’t have picked a better time to heat up. Their sweep of the Phillies pulled them within 4 games of the NL East lead, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into their series with the Marlins. Miami has been competitive, but New York’s bats have been on another level.

Over the last 7 days, the Mets are hitting .327 as a team with 12 home runs and a .937 OPS. They are also 20 games above .500 at home on the season. Oh, and they've beaten the Marlins in 4 of their 6 meetings this year.

Miami, on the other hand, continues to struggle away from home, losing 4 of its last 6 overall and 10 of its last 14 on the road. With their offense locked in and home-field advantage on their side, it’s hard not to back the Mets to keep rolling Thursday night.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-120).

The total has been evenly split in recent history, with the O/U going 5-5 in the last 10 meetings. But Thursday’s matchup points toward another high-scoring affair. New York’s bats have been scorching, and the Over is 6-2-2 in its last 10 games. Miami has also trended that way, with 4 of its last 6 hitting the Over. With the Mets offense capable of nearly covering this total by itself, the Over is the smart play.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect