People walk through a shopping street in Istanbul, Turkey November 27, 2023. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo
Women buy food from a street vendor at a pier in Istanbul, Turkey, April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Louisa Gouliamaki/File Photo

ISTANBUL (Reuters) -Turkey's economy is expected to have grown by 4.1% in the second quarter and by 2.9% for 2025 as a whole, well lower than government forecasts, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The big emerging market economy expanded by 2% in the first quarter and 3.2% in 2024 a whole.

Estimates of 10 economists in the Reuters poll ranged from 2.2% to 4.5% for the second quarter, with a median of 4.1% gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

They see an expansion of 2.9% this year, slightly lower than last year, the poll showed, reflecting the effects of monetary tightening that began in mid-2023 and has only started to ease a bit this year.

The government forecasts 4% growth this year.

In December, the central bank started cutting after having kept the main policy rate steady for eight months. Inflation has dipped to 33% from as high as 75% last May.

In March and April, the bank reversed course and tightened by 350 basis points and raised the lending rate to 49% in response to market turmoil over the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.

It returned to easing in July and more cuts are expected through year end. But with the policy rate still high at 43%, combined with pressure from global trade wars, the economy has cooled.

Wall Street bank Citi said leading indicators suggest activity decelerated in the second quarter, with sequential growth at 0.6%, down from 1.0% in the previous quarter.

It forecasts annual growth of about 4.5% in the second quarter "driven by base effects and an increase in the number of working days," it said.

The Turkish Statistical Institute is expected to release the official Q2 GDP data at 0700 GMT on Sept 1.

(Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Jonathan Spicer)