There are reasons to think the Democrats will gain substantially in the 2026 mid-term elections, but there are also reasons to doubt the anticipated turnover in Congress will happen.

One of the biggest reasons to doubt a major change in the composition of the U.S. Congress is the dwindling number of voters registering as Democrats. In every state that permits voters to register by party, the Democrats lost ground to Republicans during 2020-24, according to published reports in the New York Times and other news outlets.

While registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans overall, the margin is small and dwindling. The Biden years were not kind to Democrats, which helps explain why President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Given the state of the Democratic Party, even no

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