Democratic strategist James Carville at the Pasadena Convention Center in Pasadena, California on June 26, 2016

In November, Democratic and GOP strategists will be paying very close attention to the outcomes of two gubernatorial races — one in New Jersey, the other in Virginia — and use them to gauge their prospects for the 2026 midterms.

The Virginia race finds former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democrat nominee, up against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Democrats are hoping that Spanberger, a former CIA agent, will be able to flip a seat presently held by outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin — who is ineligible to run for reelection in 2025. Under Virginia law, governors can serve two terms, but not consecutively.

In an op-ed published by Fox News on September 2, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville praises Spanberger's messaging on crime and notes the Virginia Police Benevolent Association has endorsed Spanberger — not Republican Earle-Sears.

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"I'll admit it: Democrats are on the defensive when it comes to crime," Carville argues. "President Donald Trump's takeovers of Washington, D.C., and Los Angeles aren't making America any safer, but they're effective stunts — designed to put Democrats on the back foot and distract from his administration driving our country to economic ruin. Republican law and order messaging is nothing new — Google 'Richard Nixon.'"

Carville continues, "But in the wake of the whole 'defund the police' debacle, Democrats are still working to find clear, consistent answers to it that voters trust…. The good news is that former Virginia Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is on the ballot this November for governor in Virginia, is delivering a masterclass in what credible leadership on stopping crime looks like…. She crossed the aisle to vote for additional funding for police departments. She also led the charge to let retired officers receive the full Social Security benefits they paid into during their careers."

Carville's op-ed is generating a lot of discussion on X, formerly Twitter. And some MAGA Republicans are furious with him for praising a Democrat as tough on crime.

Tricia Ramirez tweeted, "Total lies! The blonde Dem is not going to support the police. So Union must be getting something from her but the regular officers will get no support."

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Matthew Karpoff wrote, "Carville is a kook!! Democrats have proven they hate police and for a union to endorse a democrat, well, there you have it. Bought and paid for. Another reason unions are old hat!!"

Bonnie Madden posted, "Wrong! They have done nothing to fight crime. In fact they increased crime by not prosecuting criminals and by allowing millions of criminals, gangs and cartel members into our country!"

Far-right MAGA conspiracy theorist and former Virginia State Sen. Amanda Chase, who ran for governor in 2021 but lost to Youngkin in the primary, tweeted, "Many have noticed Spanberger seems to be more nervous than usual. Could it be because her former CIA boss John Brennan fled the country to avoid prosecution or could it be this?"

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James Carville's full op-ed for Fox News is available at this link.