"Past is prologue ." It's been more than 400 years since Shakespeare wrote that line in "The Tempest," but it still rings true.

When it comes to the AP Top 25 or Coaches Poll, we all get frustrated when voters lean too heavily on last season and brush aside what we've actually seen on the field. Instead of throwing preseason expectations out the window, they treat them as gospel while dismissing early results as flukes.

Power ratings should be different. If opinion polls are reactive, power polls are predictive. They're not about what has happened, but what's most likely to happen next. And when it comes to forecasting the future, history is often the best guide. Teams -- and humans -- are predictable. They repeat patterns, just in slightly different ways.

That's why a strong power

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