Are We Overestimating Autocracies?

Russia and Iran have proved weaker than many thought. So will China.

Chinese soldiers march during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan in Tiananmen Square on September 3. September 15, 2025, 9:04 AM Comment icon View Comments ( )

Leading military analysts predicted that Russia would easily roll over Ukraine in February 2022. They also forecast that any strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would lead to devastating retaliation and a regionwide war. Now, they tell us that Beijing’s rapid military buildup will make it difficult for the United States and its allies to defeat a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Are they wrong about this, too?

Leading military analysts predicted that Russia would easily roll over Ukraine i

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