Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen are preparing to announce a 2035 climate target that is expected to be more ambitious than those of Canada and New Zealand, but less so than the United Kingdom's target, which is among the most aggressive globally. This significant climate commitment is anticipated to be finalized in a cabinet meeting today and will be presented at the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week, where world leaders will also confirm their 2035 targets.

The upcoming commitment follows the release of Australia's first National Climate Risk Assessment, which warned that rising sea levels could impact 1.5 million people by 2050. The report also highlighted potential increases in heat-related deaths and more frequent flooding in major cities if global warming exceeds 2 degrees Celsius. The government aims to build on climate policies established during its previous term, with a plan outlining a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050.

The 2035 target is crucial as it will influence national policy, spending commitments, and the efforts required by future governments to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Under the Paris Agreement, which was negotiated by 196 nations in 2015, countries committed to keeping global temperature increases well below 2 degrees Celsius. Most nations also agreed to reach net zero emissions by 2050, with interim targets updated every five years.

Australia's current target for 2030 aims for a 43 percent reduction in emissions compared to 2005 levels. The significance of the new 2035 target lies in its potential impact on national policy and the credibility of Australia's climate commitments, especially as some countries have seen emissions rise despite their targets.

Other nations have made various commitments for 2035. Canada aims for a 45 to 50 percent reduction below 2005 levels, while New Zealand targets a 51 to 55 percent reduction. The United Kingdom has set an effective target to cut emissions by about 78 percent below 2005 levels. The United States, which withdrew from the Paris Agreement under former President Trump, submitted a target of 61 to 66 percent under President Biden. Japan has proposed a target of 60 percent below 2013 levels, and Brazil aims for a 59 to 67 percent reduction below 2005 levels.

The deadline for submitting 2035 targets was initially set for February but was extended to the end of this month to allow more time for preparation. The Australian government delayed its timeline after the Climate Change Authority requested additional time to consider changes, including the re-election of President Trump. This delay pushed the target announcement past the 2025 election, where energy costs and climate change are expected to be key issues.

The federal government is taking a unique approach to setting its target, relying on a ground-up analysis of policy measures and expected emissions reductions. The recent announcement of a $1.1 billion fund to support the production of green aviation and diesel fuels will be factored into the modeling for the achievable target.

As the cabinet meets to discuss the Climate Change Authority's advice, Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed that his department has modeled a 2035 target within the range of a 65 to 75 percent reduction. However, the final advice may be lower due to the need to reassess the target in light of the current political climate, particularly following the U.S. retreat from climate action.

Minister Bowen emphasized that the government's target will balance ambition with achievability, stating, "Based on the best evidence and the best forecasts before us from the Climate Change Authority and other experts right across the government, that's what we'll be doing."

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions must be cut by 68 percent by 2035. While many countries have yet to submit their targets, those that have generally fall short of this goal. The Climate Change Authority has indicated that current commitments could lead to a global temperature increase of 2.9 degrees Celsius if met.

Labor MP Jerome Laxale remarked that Australia has the opportunity to set an example for others in achieving ambitious emissions reduction targets. He stated, "The number or the range to be announced this week is very important. But you know, to me it's not a ceiling. We need to get to net zero as soon as possible."

Meanwhile, the Coalition continues to review its climate policy amid internal disagreements over maintaining a net zero commitment. Climate groups argue that any target below 71 percent would be a step backward, while the Business Council of Australia warns that a target in the 70s or higher could result in significant economic losses. The upcoming target announcement is expected to have far-reaching implications for communities, the economy, and the environment.