The timelines and tough decisions police will be weighing up in the Dezi Freeman hunt

Dezi Freeman has been on the run for four weeks, and police have been very careful to keep secret where and how they have been searching for him.

This is standard policing practice in any criminal investigation.

A conclusion from this lack of information is the police are not making any headway into finding him. This is not necessarily so.

However, as time progresses, police will have to weigh up changes of tactics and at some point may have to consider scaling back or even giving up.

Outlaws in modern Australian history

The word “outlaw” has its origin in old England, when someone committed a crime and was banished to the countryside by the King or Queen. Once they left the protection of the castle they were then outside the protection of the law of the land.

Outlaw now has a different meaning. It’s a person who is a habitual criminal or wanted by police for a serious crime. They are also called a fugitive.

Australia has only had four significant outlaws or fugitives in the past 40 years:

John Bobak, who police believe was responsible for a double murder on the Gold Coast in 1991. He has been on the run since then
Brenden Abbott, nicknamed the “postcard bandit”, escaped from Fremantle Prison in 1989. He evaded police for six years until he was captured in 1995
New South Wales prison escapee Darko Desic evaded police for 30 years, living in sand dunes in Sydney’s Northern Beaches until he voluntarily handed himself into Dee Why Police in 2022
Malcolm Naden hid and lived in rugged bushland around Gloucester and Scone for seven years after murdering two girls in 2005. NSW Police established Strike Force Durkin and heavily armed tactical operations police eventually found and arrested him in 2012.

Freeman allegedly shot and killed Detective Senior Constable Neal Thompson and Senior Constable Vadim de Waart-Hottart at Porepunkah in country Victoria on August 26.

Given the remarkable similarities to Naden’s investigation and eventual arrest, it begs the question: how long can Freeman evade police for? Both men were skilled in bush craft and knew their respective areas well.

Australia’s largest manhunt

The hunt for Freeman is already the largest tactical police operation in Australian history.

Victoria Police have already called on support from state and territory police forces, as well as the Australian Federal Police and army.

New Zealand specialists have also flown over to assist in the hunt after successfully tracking down fugitive Tom Phillips who lived off the land for five years before he was shot by police.

As the search continues, Victorian police will at some point consider “where to from here”?

Given the rarity of similar fugitives hunts in Australia, that decision will be a complex and difficult one. Police will be loathe to put a time frame on “how long”.

However, police will constantly reflect on their tactics and searching methods from the air and on foot. They will have been using police dogs and possibly advanced military equipment (normally reserved for use in the battlefield) supplied by the Australian Defence Force.

Police will want to ensure they’ve exhausted all possible hiding places and escape routes.

Only once they are satisfied with the degree of their thoroughness, along with analysing all the accompanying information from public appeals, will police consider when and how to downgrade the search.

What happens if police can’t find him?

Police will be drawing on experience from the Naden hunt as a yardstick to determine when the search might need to be downgraded, as this is the only similar manhunt.

The immediate search may last up to six months with more favourable weather, but the criminal investigation will remain open and active until Freeman is found – even if it takes years.

Police will be mindful of a host of factors in making a decision to call off the hunt.

Before making any decision, they will consult with the victims’ families, explaining the reasons.

I was a police officer for nearly three decades and was involved with former police and their families who suffered the pain and trauma of an officer’s death.

In the Freeman case, any decision to change tactics will be thoroughly explained to the victims’ families.

While this will not make the process of accepting a possible decision easier, the families will likely understand the reasons more than others in the community.

As the victims were police, their families will understand the operational practicalities of a protracted search and the resources that have been dedicated to it.

There are limits to the number of times an area can be searched and searched again before police are satisfied its been completed.

There are also limits to the use of aerial support and the number of police dogs used before they are all fatigued. All these resources have limitations.

Public perception will be another issue police will consider.

If the manhunt is downgraded, police will be mindful of the message it sends to the community.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Vincent Hurley, Macquarie University

Vincent Hurley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.