A recent report from the Fraser Institute highlights significant economic challenges faced by Canada during Justin Trudeau's government. The study claims that from 2020 to 2024, the average Canadian's standard of living declined at the steepest rate since the Great Depression, despite government assertions of strong economic growth.

The Trudeau administration pointed to annual increases in Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) as evidence of economic success. However, the Fraser Institute argues that these figures were misleading. The growth in total GDP was largely driven by high immigration rates, which increased the population and, consequently, the demand for goods and services.

The report emphasizes that while total GDP grew, the real GDP per capita—a key indicator of individual prosperity—actually fell. This decline indicates that the economic benefits were not being shared equally among Canadians. The study's co-author, Lawrence Schembri, noted that the negative growth in GDP per person could lead to an even lower standard of living for Canadians in the future. He referenced projections from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that suggest Canada will have the worst economic growth per capita among advanced economies from 2020 to 2060.

From 2020 to 2024, Canada’s GDP grew by an average of 1.5% annually, totaling a cumulative increase of 7.8%. In contrast, GDP per person fell by an average of 0.4% annually, resulting in a cumulative decrease of 2%. This performance was the worst among G7 countries, with only Germany showing weaker results. Other comparable nations, such as Australia and New Zealand, fared better during the same period.

The Fraser Institute attributes the decline in GDP per capita to several factors, including high immigration rates that outpaced economic growth, leading to a larger economic pie but smaller individual slices. Additionally, government policies that resulted in weak business investment contributed to low productivity levels.

Prime Minister Mark Carney previously criticized Trudeau's immigration policies and government spending as detrimental to the economy. In March 2024, Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, described low productivity as a critical issue requiring urgent policy changes. Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland also acknowledged low productivity as a significant challenge, warning that it threatens future prosperity for Canadian families.

Economist Trevor Tombe from the University of Calgary noted that GDP per person in Canada has fallen to nearly half that of the United States, marking an unprecedented divergence in economic performance. While the issue of low productivity predates Trudeau's administration and was worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, the report suggests that the government's policies have not effectively addressed these challenges.

Trudeau, who previously criticized former Prime Minister Stephen Harper for poor economic growth, now faces scrutiny for his own administration's economic record.