Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical importance such as “ Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?” and “ Will Israel strike the Iranian military again before September 2025?”

Forecasters estimate the probabilities of the events occurring—a more informative guess than a simple “yes” or “no”—weeks to months in advance, often with remarkable accuracy. Metaculus users correctly predicted the date of the Russian invasion of Ukraine two weeks in advance and put a 90 percent chance of Roe v. Wade being overturned almost two months before it happened.

Still, one of the top 10 finishers in the Summer Cup , wh

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