Sunday’s game between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers is too close for ESPN’s projection model to call.

ESPN Analytics is split nearly evenly down the middle in forecasting the Week 3 showdown at Gillette Stadium. The network’s Matchup Predictor gave each team a 49.8 percent win probability on Friday.

The math shifted slightly that afternoon. New England now has a microscopic 50.0 percent edge over Pittsburgh’s 49.6 percent as of this writing,

Despite New England’s home-field advantage, Pittsburgh is favored by 1.5 points on ESPN Bet and DraftKings Sportsbook. Perhaps the battle is even tighter than that narrow spread indicates.

Each AFC squad enters Sunday with a 1-1 record after a roller-coaster start to the 2025 season. While the Patriots followed a Week 1 loss wi

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