Red Zone Opportunity Share: Underestimated Players

Early touchdown totals are noisy; red-zone roles are stickier. The Red Zone Opportunity Share approach (RZ-OSI) looks past the headline TDs and weighs how much of a team’s inside-the-20 work a player actually controls, adjusted by how often that offense reaches the red zone. Through two weeks, that lens points to players whose underlying opportunity should translate into steadier scoring as the season settles.

In summary, RZ-OSI = player share of team red-zone chances × team red-zone trips per game. Team red-zone trips provide crucial context—more arrivals near the goal line mean more chances to cash in. Early on, the Indianapolis Colts top the league in red-zone attempts per game (six), with the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars next (five and a half each).

Red Zone Opportunity Sha