Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, is known for his nickname, Dr. Doom. Despite this moniker, he maintains a surprisingly upbeat demeanor. "I'm Australian and basically just a constant happy, happy dog," he said. Kemp studies past civilizational collapses and their implications for the future. He recently published a book on the subject, emphasizing his concerns about climate change. "Climate change is one of the drivers which most concerns me going forward," he stated. "It's already happening, and I think people dramatically underestimate just how bad it could get, and also how vulnerable we are to it."

This week, the federal government released a comprehensive analysis detailing the expected impacts of climate change on the country through the end of the century. The report warns that while the consequences of climate change are severe, they can be mitigated if global warming is limited. However, Kemp remains cautious about the future. "I think of the future probabilistically, and there's different futures going forward. I think most of them aren't so good," he said. He believes that while he is pessimistic, he is not fatalistic, asserting that there are still positive outcomes possible.

Kemp's perspective has drawn criticism from some climate activists who argue that optimism is essential for motivating change. He acknowledges the fine line between healthy pessimism and fatalism. "If we manage the Herculean task of decarbonizing by 2050, but we have nuclear war in 2051, we are unfortunately still screwed," he explained. He also highlighted the risk of ocean anoxia, a phenomenon that occurred 304 million years ago, where rapid warming depleted oxygen in the oceans, leading to mass extinction.

The national climate risk assessment indicates that Australia is expected to warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2090. Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen acknowledged the report's confrontational nature, stating, "I think many Australians will find the report confronting. Let's be clear-eyed about the challenges, let's be realistic about the threats, let's be optimistic about the future."

The report emphasizes the need to prepare for global warming levels of 2C to 3C, with Australia likely experiencing higher temperatures than the global average. Kemp criticized current climate modeling, stating, "The way that we model climate change right now isn't very good, particularly when it comes to damages. They're extrapolating from present into an unprecedented future."

Judith Landsberg, general manager of the Australian Climate Service, noted that the assessment focused solely on domestic risks, limiting its scope. She stated, "We were not able to do a comprehensive assessment of the impact to the economy of climate change, because that information requires longer."

The emotional landscape surrounding climate change is complex, with individuals fluctuating between optimism and despair. Earlier this year, Canadian environmentalist David Suzuki sparked controversy by stating, "it's too late" to stop climate change. His comments were met with backlash from climate activists who labeled it as climate fatalism. Ketan Joshi, an Australian climate analyst, argued that fatalism is as misguided as climate denial.

Kemp differentiates between fatalism and what he calls climate risk realism. "Fatalism implies a complete lack of agency over the future. I don't believe that," he said. He maintains that while avoiding global catastrophic risk is unlikely, it is still worth striving for. Suzuki later clarified his stance, emphasizing the importance of hope and adaptability in the face of climate change.

Kemp believes that historical analysis can provide insights into how societies respond to climate challenges. He noted that societies with greater inclusivity and equality tend to fare better during climatic shifts. He cited the Late Antique Little Ice Age, which caused significant disruption but affected societies differently based on their social structures.

The national climate risk assessment highlights that the most vulnerable Australians will be disproportionately impacted by climate change. It also indicates that existing inequalities will be exacerbated. "Vulnerabilities include a lack of decision-making power or options around where to live," the report stated. Kemp argues that addressing these inequalities is crucial for mitigating climate risks. "The big problem here is that we have very large power structures that benefit from producing these risks and will do anything to make sure they continue to do so," he said.