Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick (77) throws a pitch against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.

The Detroit Tigers (85-73) and Cleveland Guardians (86-72) meet Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 8-4

The Tigers came up well short Wednesday, dropping the second game of the series 5-1 to extend their losing streak to 8 games. SP Jack Flaherty took the loss, allowing 3 earned runs over 4 1/3 innings. With the skid, Detroit has fallen to second in the AL Central and sits just 1 game ahead of the Houston Astros for the final AL Wild Card spot.

The Guardians were led by 3B Jose Ramirez, who finished with 2 hits and 2 RBIs. SP Tanner Bibee earned the win, giving up 1 earned run over 6 innings. Cleveland has been the hottest team in baseball in recent weeks, surging to first in the AL Central and winning 12 of its last 13 games.

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Tigers at Guardians projected starters

RHP Troy Melton vs. LHP Parker Messick

Melton (3-2, 2.79 ERA) makes his fourth start and 16th appearance. The rookie has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 42 innings.

  • Last appearance: 1 1/3 relief IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 6-5 home setback vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 1-0 victory at Chicago White Sox Aug. 13
  • 2025 road stats: 1-1, 3.66 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 16 H, 3 BB, 20 K in 2 starts and 4 relief appearances
  • Career vs. Guardians: 1 relief appearance (Sept. 18), 1 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 3-1 home defeat

Messick (3-0, 2.08 ERA) makes his seventh start. The rookie has a 1.30 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 34 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 6-2 victory at Minnesota Twins Friday
  • 2025 home stats: 2-0, 0.69 ERA (13 IP, 1 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 11 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 2 starts
  • Has never faced Tigers

Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:06 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Tigers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Guardians -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers +1.5 (-145) | Guardians -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Tigers 2

Moneyline

PASS.

While the Guardians (-170) to win outright at home is enticing, they are better played on the run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET GUARDIANS -1.5 (+120).

The Guardians have been torching teams over the past few weeks. They have covered in 8 of their last 9 games and are 86-72 on the run line this season. Messick has been an especially strong option, winning 3 in a row and covering in 2 of those starts.

The Tigers don’t have much life -- especially on offense. They’ve scored just 5 runs over their last 3 games and have tallied 2 or fewer in 6 of their past 7. Don’t expect Detroit to flip the switch Thursday. Take GUARDIANS -1.5 (+120).

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-115).

The Guardians are 1-4-1 O/U in Messick's starts. They have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and are 1-6-1 O/U in their last 8 contests.

The Tigers, 3-4 O/U in their last 7 games, have had clear offensive issues and should struggle to produce Thursday. Take UNDER 8 (-115).

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Nathan Beighle, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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