President Donald Trump's tariffs have decimated U.S. farmers' soybean market and there is "no sign of Chinese buying."
The fall harvest has started without any orders from China, the world's biggest buyer, according to a new report published on agriculture.com's Successful Farming.
American farmers are reporting record yields for crops this fall but it's unclear who will buy them. The USDA estimates that American farmers are harvesting 4.3 billion bushels, however there is no indication if or when shipments to China will continue. Most years, China buys more than half of U.S. soybean exports — but not this year.
Brazil, however, has had record demand from China from January to August 2025 for Brazilian soybeans. And in the new report, experts "consider the possible consequences if a trade deal is not reached this fall."
"From the 2017/18 to the 2024/25 crop season, Brazil jumped its soybean production from 4.5 billion bushels to 6.3 billion bushels, according to the National Supply Company (Conab) – Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency."
There is speculation that Chinese buyers importing soybeans could be "accelerating shipments to avoid sourcing from the United States."
The ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. is testing farmers' faith in the Trump administration. During the first trade war in 2018 during Trump's first term, farmers took a hit and during President Joe Biden's term had begun to recover.
Now under Trump's second term, farmers have called for more assistance during the prolonged economic uncertainty.
"Some relief might come from federal government payments to producers, as happened during the first round of trade war, but in many cases, that assistance may not be enough to prevent an uptick in financial stress," according to the report.
Chinese buyers are expected to continue shifting soybean purchases to other South American countries, including Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia. These countries are planning to expand planting acreage for their crops and focusing on planting soon for the 2025 and 2026 crop in the Southern Hemisphere.
Critics are pointing to Trump's trade policies as a major disruption to the U.S. agriculture industry.
"Until Trump's first term, the US was by far the world's largest exporter of soybeans. Now Brazil dominates," David Frum, writer at The Atlantic, wrote via X.
"Has Iowa thanked Trump/Vance for devastating their soybeans market?" Former U.S. Representative Barbara Comstock (R-VA) wrote on X.