New research shows that China retains a very narrow edge over the United States as South-East Asia's most influential partner, with experts predicting it will soon pull further ahead as the Trump administration's policies begin to bite in the region.

The Lowy Institute's 2025 South-East Asia Influence Index maps the relative strength of outside players in the rapidly growing and fiercely contested region, including the US, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Russia.

The paper finds that China has a clear lead as the most influential player in six out of the 11 countries in South-East Asia, including Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia

That makes it the most significant power overall in the region, although it is not a dominant force.

The US

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