Two timely catalysts could lift Tesla's quarterly deliveries above expectations.

Shares of Tesla ( TSLA 3.97% ) have been volatile into quarter-end, with investors fixated on next week's delivery report. The electric-vehicle (EV) maker sells mass-market cars like the Model 3 and Model Y, plus premium vehicles including the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck. The near-term debate is whether third-quarter deliveries can top expectations after a softer first half of the year.

There is a credible case for an upside surprise. Financial company UBS recently lifted its estimate for Tesla's third-quarter deliveries, and two near-term tailwinds line up with that call: the approaching deadline for the federal EV tax credit and a well-timed Model Y refresh. Put together, demand may have s

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