Sep 13, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Texas A&M Aggies celebrate after their win against Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The Week 5 slate in college football is highlighted by two mammoth matchups. Oregon faces Penn State in the Big Ten, and Alabama visits Georgia in the SEC. Those games both have point spreads smaller than four, so it's hard to lean hard into an "upset" pick. There are other games with spreads of at least four points which jump out as possible upset candidates. It's the end of September, and we are about to see movement in conference standings around the country.

One of the annual challenges of picking college football games at the end of September and the start of October is figuring out which teams are actually good. We always see teams start really hot and then cool off. Other teams start slowly but then begin to figure things out in the middle third of the season, which is beginning now. What's real and what's a mirage? Which teams are about to turn the corner, and which teams are about to plummet? This is part of the test of picking the right upsets in college football when September ends.

Let's turn to our College Sports Wire panel for five upset alert football predictions for Week 5:

Upset Alert No. 1 -- Auburn +6.5 at Texas A&M

The Aggies are confident. They are 3-0 and enter this game fresh off a bye after beating Notre Dame in a huge victory. Auburn suffered its first loss of the year in a road trip to Oklahoma in a game that they likely believe they should have won. There is no reason Auburn should win this game or go into Kyle Field and create drama, yet that is exactly why this game turns the SEC on its head. Texas A&M, like clockwork, gets the nation to believe that this might actually be the year, only to falter down the stretch. The faltering could happen this weekend against a hungry Auburn team. Lastly, the Aggies haven't exactly been the 1985 Bears on defense. They have given up points. Jackson Arnold, Auburn's QB, is dynamic with his arms and legs and could put together a magical day for the Tigers. -- Riley Donald

Upset Alert No. 2 -- UCF +6.5 at Kansas State

The Ireland curse is real with the Kansas State Wildcats. They went out to Dublin, barely lost to Iowa State and things have not gone right since. They do have one win, but they should have lost that game. They have since lost at home to Army and on the road against Arizona. The Knights, on the other hand, have won their first three games with Scott Frost back as head coach. The competition hasn't been great, but they did whip North Carolina 34-9 last week. The Knights have all the momentum, while the Wildcats are hanging on for dear life. The Knights get the upset in ths one. -- Adam Childs

Upset Alert No. 3 -- Syracuse +6 vs Duke

The Orange lost starting quarterback Steve Angeli for the season with an Achilles injury, but I think this offense can continue to prosper with LSU transfer Rickie Collins at the helm, especially with that fantastic receiving corps. Duke's defense hasn't quite lived up to expectations this season, and I think the Orange can pull this one off in a shootout. I feel like this line should arguably be flipped. -- Tyler Nettuno

Upset Alert No. 4 -- Pitt +4.5 vs Louisville

It has not been a smooth ride for the Cardinals under new quarterback Miller Moss, who came from USC to play for Jeff Brohm, one of the finest offensive minds in the sport. Brohm has shown he can get the most out of less-than-great quarterbacks. Louisville reached the ACC Championship Game two years ago with Jack Plummer under center. Brohm could develop Moss, but in late September, that developmental curve is slight and not substantial. Brohm and Moss might need several more weeks to maximize their partnership. Moss did not handle road trips well with USC last season. It's hard to fully trust him here. Pitt is not a tower of dependability, but the Panthers will be desperate after losing to West Virginia. -- Matt Zemek

Upset Options

Watch out for Illinois +6.5 at home against USC, with the Trojans having to play an early "body clock" game in Champaign.

Arkansas +4.5 at home against a leaky Notre Dame defense will attract some action.

Iowa +7.5 at home in Kinnick Stadium against Curt Cignetti's Indiana team is a fascinating game on its own terms, but also from a betting standpoint.

Enjoy the games, everyone!

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This article originally appeared on College Sports Wire: College Football Upset Alert: underdogs to watch in Week 5

Reporting by Matt Zemek, Tyler Nettuno, Adam Childs and Riley Donald, College Sports Wire / College Sports Wire

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