The U.S. government may take a 10% equity stake in this domestic lithium producer -- but dilution concerns clash with the de-risked path to 2028 production.

The Trump administration wants to own a piece of Lithium Americas ( LAC -9.50% ) , and Wall Street can't decide if that's brilliant or terrifying. The stock spiked this week on reports that the U.S. government is negotiating a 5% to 10% equity stake tied to restructuring the company's $2.26 billion Department of Energy (DOE) loan. Add General Motors ' $945 million commitment and potential shift to "take-or-pay" offtake agreements, and Thacker Pass suddenly looks like the most politically protected mining project in America.

Yet beneath the federal backstop lies an uncomfortable truth: Lithium Americas won't produce a single

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