At the India Today Conclave in Mumbai, three of the country’s top economists including Tanvee Gupta Jain of UBS, Sajid Z Chinoy of JP Morgan, and Samiran Chakraborty of Citibank sounded a cautious note on the country’s growth prospects amid rising US tariffs and a shifting global trade order. Advertisement

Tanvee Gupta Jain, Chief India Economist at UBS, highlighted the impact of steep penalties on India’s exports. “A 50% penalty, which includes 25% reciprocal tariff and 25% penalty for buying military equipment from Russia, is one of the highest across emerging markets,” she said.

According to Jain, nearly $35 billion worth of Indian goods are exposed, equal to about 0.8% of GDP. The pain is most acute in low-margin, labour-intensive sectors like gems and jewellery, textiles, leather,

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