NFL straight-up picks Week 4, where the Eagles' undefeated run ends

NFL Week 4 picks

Sep 21, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) reacts after an interception in the 4th quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images

Sep 21, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches pass defended boy New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner (1) in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Philadelphia Eagles have won each of their first three games by seven points or fewer -- and their biggest margin of victory was the result of a blocked field goal return for a touchdown at the buzzer. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have needed three last-minute comebacks to start their season 3-0.

So, Eagles-Buccaneers in Week 4 should have plenty of drama.

The question is whether the defending Super Bowl champions can make it 10 straight wins dating back to the 2024 regular season. In clutch situations both the Tush Push and Baker Mayfield have looked infallible this fall. Thus, we've got an unstoppable force/immovable object showdown that has our panel of experts split.

That's not the only game we had trouble with. So let's take a look at our Week 4 NFL picks.

I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. My 2024 wasn't as fruitful -- Andrew Joseph and his 71 percent hit rate knocked me down a peg in the FTW standings.

Joining me for 2025 is a seven-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes, Jordan Tomiyama) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Cory Woodroof, and Joseph). Here are our Week 4 picks.

And:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Survivor pick of the week: Houston Texans (-7) over the Tennessee Titans

The Buffalo Bills would be too easy a pick and I'd prefer not to make this section simply "whoever the Saints are playing this week." Houston has underwhelmed and this is the safest play you'll have for them all season. If C.J. Stroud can't rise up against the league's 30th ranked defense, the Texans might as well pack it in and start planning their 2026 NFL Draft strategy.

Otherwise, the Los Angeles Chargers should be able to make Jaxson Dart's first start miserable -- though I have concerns about the ol' West Coast team playing an early East Coast game trope.

• Last week: 1-0
• 2025 to date: 3-0 (1.000)

Hardest favorite to back: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Why I like this pick:

The Chiefs no longer look like THE CHIEFS. A Patrick Mahomes offense somehow has yet to crack the top 10 in dropback expected points added (EPA) or score more than 22 points in a game. Their running backs are averaging 3.6 yards per carry. This may be the most Mahomes has ever had to lift, and he may be finally straining under the weight.

The Ravens are dealing with similar disappointment, but the run defense that allowed the Detroit Lions to run all over them won't be stretched as thin in Kansas City. The Chiefs have a modestly above-average pass rush -- the same kind the Lions did en route to seven sacks in Week 3 -- but are unlikely to replicate the 20 percent sack rate that crushed Baltimore's comeback hopes. And even if Jackson gets hit, he's maximized his opportunities downfield; he leads the league in touchdown rate (nine percent), yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (a ridiculous 141.8) while throwing more deep balls than anyone.

In a game that could be decided by a field goal, both sides are suffering through down years in the kicking game. Harrison Butker is just three-of-five on extra points and four-of-six when it comes to field goals longer than 40 yards.

Why I don't like this pick:

Patrick Mahomes is so determined to make this work he got Tyquan Thornton more targets (and catches!) in Week 3 than he had his entire 2024 as a New England Patriot. The Kansas City defense is gelling together after a rough start in Sao Paolo. The Chiefs held Philadelphia to just 216 total yards in Week 2 (didn't matter) and then limited the New York Giants to nine points, though Russell Wilson's uncanny ability to throw the ball away on three of four snaps in a late goal-to-go situation certainly played a role.

Baltimore has found ways to collapse late. Against non-Cleveland Browns teams the Ravens have been outscored 39-15 in the fourth quarter. Now that team has to face Mr. Magic himself, ol' Patty Mo? Ooof.

• Last week: 1-0
• 2025 to date: 2-1 (.667)

Upset pick of the week: New York Jets (+2.5) over the Miami Dolphins

My good fortune in this section came to a crashing halt alongside the Las Vegas Raiders, who got summarily pieced up by Marcus Mariota and Washington's special teams. Hence my "don't trust a West Coast team with an early East Coast kickoff" trepidation above. A chalky week left few upset picks -- two by my count, depending on when and where you got your Atlanta Falcons pick in. I originally had the Steelers as a winner before I remembered their quarterback is a 41-year-old statue and he's up against a Brian Flores defense that will blitz you until you're nothing but a pile of ground beef.

So, yeah. j-e-t-s Jets? (deep sigh)

Why I like this pick:

I don't, really. But I'd like picking the Dolphins even less. Miami's defense is the worst in the NFL, with a shallow cornerback corps struggling mightily against the pass (0.44 expected points added allowed per opposing dropback and a whopping 128.9 passer rating allowed in coverage). Either Justin Fields OR Tyrod Taylor should be able to find space against that group.

On the other side of the ball, I trust the Jets' star-filled defense to perk up more than the Dolphins' star-filled offense. New York has the talent to frustrate Tua Tagovailoa. First year head coach Aaron Glenn hasn't figured out how to harness it yet, but I expect improvement as the season wears on.

Why I don't like this pick:

Miami was frisky last week against the Bills, hanging tight for four quarters as a 12-plus point underdog. Now the Dolphins return home knowing they need a win to keep head coach Mike McDaniel around. The team's offense since laying a Week 1 egg against the Indianapolis Colts ranks 10th in EPA/snap and now faces New York's underwhelming offense. Part of why Jets kept things close last week was due in large part to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. The Dolphins aren't the Buccaneers, but they can air it out when they want -- and New York got absolutely lit up by Baker Mayfield when it needed a stop the most.

• Last week: 0-1
• 2025 to date: 2-1 (.667)

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL straight-up picks Week 4, where the Eagles' undefeated run ends

Reporting by Christian D'Andrea, For The Win / For The Win

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