A recent classified U.S. military intelligence report indicates that China is significantly expanding its commercial ferry fleet in preparation for a potential invasion of Taiwan. The report, prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency for the Pentagon, suggests that these large ocean-going vessels have been modified to transport tanks and support amphibious operations.

In 2022, approximately 30 Chinese commercial ferries were observed participating in military exercises alongside troops from the People's Liberation Army (PLA), according to intelligence from the Five Eyes alliance, which includes the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. China is projected to build over 70 of these large ferries by the end of 2026. Taiwan's government has expressed concern, viewing these vessels as evidence of China's expansionist ambitions. Douglas Hsu, Taiwan's Chief Representative to Australia, stated, "We are also seeing increasing grey-zone tactics … to weaken Taiwan's democracy and society, such as cyber attacks. Civilian vessels or other dual-use facilities in [the] maritime domain are also part of China's strategy."

Recent satellite intelligence has shown these ferries being utilized alongside new landing docks along China's coastline, which allow for the deployment of troops and equipment onto beaches. The Department of Defense's intelligence report has classified these commercial ferries as potential military targets in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. This assessment implies that U.S. forces could target and sink these ferries, even if they are crewed by civilians, during a crisis.

Internal discussions within the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command have raised alarms about the use of commercial roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) vessels for military purposes. An internal document noted, "The direct insertion of troops into conflict is a belligerent act normally reserved for warships, yet the People's Liberation Army appears intent to use commercial vessels for this purpose."

A senior Australian government official confirmed that Australia has also reviewed the intelligence report. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has reported that China is constructing more than 70 large ferries for domestic use by the end of next year. While these ferries primarily serve civilian purposes, they have been observed participating in PLA exercises.

Professor Hu Bo, Director of the Center for Maritime Strategy Studies at Peking University, criticized the U.S. military's assessment, calling it a "naked threat" to China. He emphasized that while China is preparing for a potential crisis regarding Taiwan, this does not necessarily indicate immediate military action. "Preparation is not the same as intention," he said.

U.S. intelligence suggests that Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to be ready for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027. A significant challenge for China has been the ability to deploy large numbers of troops and equipment onto a beachhead. Recent images from Chinese social media have shown landing barges conducting training exercises near Zhanjiang, close to the PLA's Southern Theatre Command headquarters.

James Corera, Director of Cyber, Technology and Security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, stated, "China is undoubtedly building capabilities consistent with preparing for an invasion of Taiwan." He noted that the images captured by U.S. intelligence depict three new classes of landing barges designed for troop and vehicle deployment.

The U.S. Naval War College has indicated that these landing docks appear to be specifically designed for use with China's ro-ro ferries. The report highlights that these ferries are capable of transporting hundreds of passengers and vehicles, with some designs reinforced to accommodate tanks. The CSIS has reported that China is building 76 large ferries for its own use from 2023 to 2026, which constitutes nearly 40% of the country's total commercial ferry production during that period.

The U.S. Department of Defense has expressed concern over the scale of China's ferry production, noting that many of these vessels are owned by state-linked firms and modified for national defense purposes. Corera remarked, "These ferries have been integrated into PLA training, demonstrating strong progress under President Xi's civil-military fusion strategy. They can legally be mobilized in wartime, expanding lift capacity well beyond dedicated amphibious ships."

Professor Hu Bo, while acknowledging the potential military implications of the satellite intelligence, argued that the U.S. has exaggerated China's intentions. He stated, "I think the main reason China is strengthening its navy is very simple. It's because of the U.S. military threat."

The Royal United Services Institute in London has also reported that documents suggest Russia is assisting China in preparing for a potential invasion of Taiwan. The U.S. faces a complex dilemma regarding the targeting of civilian ferries during a Taiwan Strait crisis, as international law typically prohibits attacks on civilian vessels unless they are clearly repurposed for military use. The Indo-Pacific Command has debated whether ferries operated by the PLA could be considered legitimate military targets, concluding that they could be targeted in a conflict scenario.

As China continues to enhance its naval capabilities, the implications for regional security and U.S. military strategy remain significant.