CMS sees Medicare Advantage enrollment falling in 2026

Medicare Advantage enrollment is poised to fall for the first time in nearly two decades, according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.

The agency estimates that enrollment in the program will be 34 million in 2025 – marking less than half of all seniors — down from nearly 35 million this year, according to projections from health insurers.

Despite the projected pullback, the agency announced late Friday that it "anticipates that enrollment in [Medicare Advantage] in 2026 will be more robust than the plans' projections," and that the market will remain stable. Seniors will see they have an average of 10 plans to choose from in most markets when they get their first look at 2026 plans on Wednesday.

After chasing growth in the Medicare market for more than a decade, health in