With a federal government shutdown in full swing after President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers refused to negotiate with Democrats over extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, the race to politically define the crisis is on — and Democrats appear to have a head start in two key states that are hosting critical gubernatorial elections in a month.

Trump administration officials, for their part, are already trying to stick Democrats with blame in the face of early polls suggesting the public leans toward blaming the president, with some Health and Human Services employees even being ordered to use out-of-office email messages attacking Democrats.

According to Politico, though, the politics have developed in a more complex way in Virginia and New Jersey, where former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is facing off against GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is competing with former Republican state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli.

"Virginia is becoming an electoral proxy in the federal shutdown fight," wrote Liz Crampton, Brakkton Booker, and Madison Fernandez. "As one of only two statewide races across the country this year, the state presents a test case for electoral fallout from the government shutdown. Thousands of federal jobs have already been eliminated in Virginia by the Department of Government Efficiency. President Donald Trump has threatened to eliminate more federal jobs if Democrats remain recalcitrant in the government funding fight. And DOGE buyout benefits keeping many federal workers afloat expired right as the government closed this week."

Spanberger has hit Earle-Sears hard over the issue, posting, "When Trump’s DOGE fired thousands of Virginians, my opponent @winwithwinsome defended it. Trump is now threatening DOGE 2.0 and she’s again defending it. Now is the time to stand up for Virginia jobs — not encourage more mass layoffs."

In New Jersey, which is less dependent on federal jobs, the issue has been less prominent, but Sherrill has still gone after Ciattarelli over news that the Trump administration is cutting or suspending key infrastructure projects in the state during the shutdown, including the Gateway Tunnel project to build more train tracks under the Hudson River.

Where things stand now, the article reported, "Democrats appear to be winning the argument on the shutdown," with polls on their side. However, Democratic strategist Adam Carlson warned the situation is currently "very fluid" and it's not a "slam dunk" Democrats will continue to lead the messaging war and public support.