The Buffalo Bills return to primetime in Week 5 against the New England Patriots, but the bigger storyline is how Buffalo’s odds and projections have shifted since the preseason.

Updated data released on October 2nd shows the Bills as the NFL’s Super Bowl favorite, the clear leader in the AFC, and nearly unchallenged in the AFC East. Josh Allen has also surged from co-favorite to frontrunner in the MVP race.

Super Bowl 2026 outlook

In late August, the Bills were priced at +600 to win the Super Bowl, carrying around a 12–13% probability. After opening the season 4-0, they now sit atop the futures board at +400 , with a league-best 16.5% chance of winning it all, according to Dimers .

Preseason: +600 (~12–13% probability)

October 2: +400 (16.5% probability)

This movement pu

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