We tend to picture American politics in the Donald Trump era as two more-or-less equally matched coalitions of voters who have wildly disparate views of public policy and are very angry about it. The current federal-government shutdown, in which the two parties in Congress are shouting at each other on social media but not talking to each other at all, reflects this perspective of total gridlock. Thanks to our winner-take-all system of electoral rewards, however, Republicans control everything in Washington, D.C., despite narrow advantages in House and Senate membership and a close presidential win in 2024. It’s worth asking now whether they still have an advantage in the broader electorate given all the hype about a growing GOP coalition based on Trump inroads into young, Black, and L

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