Miami Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr. (4) scores a touchdown against the Florida State Seminoles during an NCAA football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

The No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0 ACC) and the No. 19 Florida State Seminoles (3-1, 0-1) meet Saturday at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Miami vs. Florida State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Miami heads to north for the latest installment of this Sunshine State rivalry game. The Hurricanes lead the all-time series 36-33, including a 36-14 victory at home last October with the Seminoles covering as 23-point underdogs. That snapped a 3-game losing streak for Miami in the series. Florida State has won the past 2 meetings at Doak Campbell Stadium, with Miami's last road win (27-10) coming in 2019.

Miami is coming off a bye following a 26-7 home win over Florida as an 8.5-point favorites as the Under (51) cashed. The U faces a fourth consecutive opponent from the state of Florida -- it also has wins over USF (49-12 as a 17.5-point favorite Sept. 13) and Bethune-Cookman (45-3 as a 53.5-point favorite Sept. 6). The 'Canes are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 4 games with the Over-Under splitting 2-2.

'Canes QB Carson Beck has completed 73.2% of his passes for 972 yards with 7 TDs against 3 interceptions across 4 games -- he also has 1 rushing TD. RB Mark Fletcher Jr. is the top ball carrier, tallying 388 rushing yards and 5 TDs, while averaging 5.9 yards per game. WR Malachi Toney has posted a team-leading 268 receiving yards with a score.

The Seminoles are still smarting after a 46-38 OT upset at Virginia Sept. 26 knocked them from the ranks of the unbeatens. QB Tommy Castellanos threw for 254 yards with a TD, but had 2 INTs, while running for a team-best 78 yards and a score. RB Gavin Sawchuk rushed for 74 yards and a score, while WR Duce Robinson finished with 9 receptions for 147 yards and a TD.

The loss to UVA snapped a 3-0 SU/ATS streak to open the season, which included a 31-17 season-opening home victory as a 13.5-point underdog over then-No. 8 Alabama Aug. 30. The Over has cashed in all 4 games for FSU.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Miami at Florida State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Miami -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Florida State +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Against the spread: Miami -4.5 (-105) | Florida State +4.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Miami at Florida State picks and predictions

Prediction

Miami 26, Florida State 23

Moneyline

Miami (-200) will cost 2 times the potential return, which is a little too pricey for a singular bet -- if you'd rather not mess around with the points. However, if you were to take Miami as part of a multi-leg parlay, it would be perfectly acceptable.

PASS on a singular moneyline bet and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

FLORIDA STATE +4.5 (-115) has the offense to hang with any team in the country, but it needs to make sure the defense that showed up in Virginia doesn't rear its ugly head again. The Seminoles couldn't stop UVA, which was shocking.

Miami has an experienced QB in Beck along with a strong running game, but how will it fare in its first road game of the season? After opening the season with 4 consecutive home games and this trip to FSU, Miami has 2 more home games before it has to finally leave the state of Florida Nov. 1 to face SMU.

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Over/Under

UNDER 54.5 (-110) could be a the best play on the board.

The total has gone Under in each of the past 4 meetings in this series, and we'll play the series trend.

Until last week, there was tremendous trust in Florida State's defense. In the first 3 games, FSU had allowed just 10.0 points per game. However, the offense averaged of 71.5 PPG in back-to-back games against East Texas A&M (77-3) and Kent State (66-10), 2 overwhelmed opponents.

We should see a close game Saturday between these 2 ranked teams with both defenses stepping up. Plus, 7 of the past 11 in this series have been decided by 7 or fewer points, and defense should star.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Miami Hurricanes at Florida State Seminoles odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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