Many investors are currently viewing bitcoin through an end-of-cycle lens, suggesting that Q4 could mark the close of the current market cycle. However, two key metrics point to the possibility that the bull market may actually be in its early stages.

Glassnode data shows that the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which smooths bitcoin’s price over a long-term horizon and has historically only trended upwards, has just breached $53,000.

Meanwhile, the realized price, the average price at which all bitcoin in circulation last moved onchain, has just risen above the 200-WMA at $54,000.

Looking back at previous cycles, we see a consistent pattern. In bull markets, the realized price tends to stay above the 200-WMA, while in bear markets, the opposite occurs.

For example, in the 2017 and 2

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