Millions of Americans who buy their own health insurance face higher premiums in 2026. Just how much higher will depend on who blinks first in the government-shutdown fight.

Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies put in place by Democrats in 2021 made health insurance basically free for many people during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet that financial cushion is set to end next year, with the tax credits resetting to their original, less-generous levels.

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