As marketers prepare for the crucial holiday sales season, they’re facing higher prices and potential shipping delays due to a string of U.S. tariffs and the removal of the de minimis import rule.

Still, consumers are poised to spend $253.4 billion on U.S. ecommerce purchases this holiday season, according to Adobe—representing a 5.3% year-over-year increase. Notably, that growth is smaller than the 8.4% year-over-year increase that Adobe forecasted last year.

Adobe’s figures look at expected ecommerce sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025. The company analyzed more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sales and 100 million SKUs (or individual products) across 18 product categories.

Cyber Week—the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—is expected to generate $43.7 billion,

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