New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a three-run home run in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during Game 3 of the ALDS in the 2025 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York.

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees meet in Game 4 of their best-of-5 American League Division Series Wednesday. The Blue Jays lead the series 2-1. The first pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, is slated for 7:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Blue Jays won 8-5

Dating back to the regular season, Toronto had won 6 straight games before giving up a 6-1 lead and losing Tuesday’s Game 3, 9-6. The Blue Jays went through 6 relievers after SP Shane Bieber was lifted in the third inning. Four of those 6 allowed runs in a game in which the Jays were outhit 12-9.

The Yankees, who lost 8 of 13 against Toronto in the regular season, got a monster 3-run home run from RF Aaron Judge (off RHP Louis Varland) in Tuesday's fourth inning. Judge had 3 hits in Game 3, and he has slashed a .500/.577/.727 (1.304) in these 2025 playoffs.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Blue Jays at Yankees projected starters

RHP Louis Varland vs. RHP Cam Schlittler

Varland (regular season: 4-3, 2.97 ERA) notched a 1.20 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 72 2/3 innings in 74 regular-season games (1 start).

  • Last outing: No-decision, 1 relief IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 9-6 defeat at Yankees Tuesday
  • 2025 postseason stats vs. Yankees: 0-1, 6.75 ERA (2 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 3 relief appearances
  • Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 0-0, 4.63 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 3 BB, 15 K in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance

Schlittler (regular season: 4-3, 2.96 ERA) authored a 1.22 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 across 73 innings in 14 regular-season starts.

  • Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 12 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of AL Wild Card Series Thursday
  • Career vs. Blue Jays: 0-1, 8.10 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 5 BB, 5 K in 2 starts

Blue Jays at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Blue Jays +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-150) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Slide into: BaseballHQ.com for your fantasy baseball news. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today!

Blue Jays at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Yankees 4

Moneyline

Schlittler figures to be overrated a bit coming off his big AL Wild Card start against Boston. The Yankee rookie threw 107 pitches in that 8-inning outing. The only time he hit triple digits on a regular-season pitch count was 100 pitches Aug. 30 at the Chicago White Sox, and he followed that turn with a Yankee Stadium clunker (4 runs allowed on 5 hits in 1 2/3 innings) against these Blue Jays (Sept. 5).

Schlittler's sub-3.00 regular-season ERA was buoyed somewhat by a .284 batting average on balls in play (.208 BABIP in inning lead-off situations). He may not be a great matchup fit against a high-contact Blue Jays nine that got to him for a .920 OPS over 2 games in the regular season. And none of that is to indicate the young righty may not be a borderline stud pitcher. Just that he figures to be overrated and over-bet in this spot.

During the season, Toronto had an MLB-high 49 wins against clubs playing .500-or-better. The Jays clobbered the Yanks over the first 2 games of this ALDS and seemed to have things in hand early Tuesday. BLUE JAYS (+145) is worth some partial-unit action for Game 4.

Run line/Against the spread

No interest; PASS.

Over/Under

The Over is 3-0 in this series.

Both offenses are dialed in over recent stretches. The Blue Jays have filed a .983 OPS over their last 7 games. The Yankees own an .806 OPS over their last 18.

Schlittler is talented but worth a fade in this particular spot. And Toronto is countering with a bullpen game that likely doesn't put its best foot forward. The bullpen'ers on both sides figure as more of a known quantity after the September series and a few games in this one.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Skip Snow, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect