Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to enter a bear market in the coming months as supportive monetary conditions are expected to prevail, effectively rendering the traditional four-year halving cycle obsolete, according to Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer and co-founder of Maelstrom.

In an essay titled "Long Live the King!" published Thursday, Arthur Hayes argued that the primary catalyst behind previous bitcoin bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 was monetary tightening in major economies, not the four-year halving cycle. On each of these occasions, bitcoin’s price plunged by 70% to 80% from its bull market peak.

CoinDesk made a similar point in 2023, explaining that BTC's four-year bull-bear cycle centred around mining reward halvings is actually tied to fluctuations in fiat money supply

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