A shopping cart is seen in a supermarket in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 10, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday it would publish September's consumer inflation report on October 24 to assist the Social Security Administration with its annual cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 for millions of retirees and other benefits recipients.

But the collection, processing and publishing of other official economic data remained suspended until the government resumed regular operations, the BLS said. The government shut down on October 1 after funding lapsed, delaying the release of September's closely watched employment report due last Friday.

"This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits," the BLS said in a statement.

The Consumer Price Index report was originally scheduled for release on October 15. The Social Security Administration uses the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers data from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025 to determine the annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits for 2026.

The programs benefit older Americans who have retired as well as the disabled and certain widows, widowers and children. The COLA announcement - a widely anticipated event each October among the households relying on those payments - is typically made shortly after the September's CPI report is released.

In 2025, more than 72.5 million Social Security and SSI beneficiaries received a 2.5% COLA increase.

The Senior Citizens League, one of the nation's biggest seniors groups, last month projected a 2.7% COLA raise in 2026, which would lift the average monthly benefit for retirees by $54 to $2,062 from $2,008.

The rescheduled CPI report will be published just in time for the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on October 28-29. The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver another 25 basis points interest rate cut at that meeting.

The Fed resumed easing policy last month, reducing its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.00%-4.25% range, to aid the labor market.

Investors will also welcome the reprieve from the official economic data blackout, but concerns are mounting over the quality of October's CPI report, with potential spillovers to November and December given the suspension of data collection.

SHUTDOWN WILL IMPACT OCTOBER CPI DATA

Consumer prices are collected throughout the month and the shutdown means a third of the October data is already missing.

Though some prices are provided by third parties, economists warned missing information could inject volatility into the data.

During the 2013 government shutdown, about 75% of the CPI data was collected that October. Economists expected something similar with this year's October report.

"As prices rise on average, collecting prices only at the end of October may result in a higher average than if prices were collected throughout the whole month," said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. "This implies a larger change relative to average September prices. But it also means prices at the end of October would be more similar to average prices in November, implying a smaller change in November."

The disruptions from the shutdown come as the BLS is already dealing with resource constraints because of budget and staffing cuts that have led to the suspension of data collection for portions of the CPI basket in some areas across the country.

Economists also noted the BLS collects some prices every other month, which could distort the upcoming CPI reports.

"However, assuming that November data are collected, the December price levels in the CPI would be no less accurate than they usually are," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. "Still, it will be a long wait for clean CPI data. The December CPI will not be released until mid January."

The CPI distortions would also impact the quality of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, tracked by the Fed for its 2% target. Economists did not see the suspension of data collection hurting the employment report and said it could instead improve the quality of nonfarm payrolls estimates.

The employment report has suffered from low response rates, which have partly contributed to large downward revisions to previously published payrolls numbers.

"The payroll data reflect employment in the pay period that includes the 12th of the month, and so they might seem to be affected by the current shutdown, which is now approaching that time," said Gapen. "However, the establishments in the establishment survey will retain their information about who was employed over that period. The BLS may collect and tabulate it later, but the underlying employment information is unharmed."

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya and Katharine Jackson; Editing by Susan Heavey, Alistair Bell and Andrea Ricci)