China has completely stopped importing soybeans from the United States for the first time since November 2018, marking a significant shift in trade relations amid ongoing tensions. In September, China imported no soybeans from the US, a stark decline from 1.7 million metric tons during the same month last year. Instead, China turned to South America, importing a record 12.87 million metric tons of soybeans, with 85.2% coming from Brazil and 9% from Argentina.

The halt in US soybean imports is largely attributed to high tariffs imposed by China and the depletion of previously harvested US supplies, known as old-crop beans. Analysts have noted that the absence of US shipments is a direct result of these tariffs, which have made American soybeans uncompetitive in the market. Wan Chengzhi, an analyst at Capital Jingdu Futures, stated, "This is mainly due to tariffs. In a typical year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market."

Brazilian soybean shipments surged by nearly 30% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons, while Argentina's exports increased by 91.5% to 1.17 million tons. This shift highlights China's growing reliance on South American suppliers, especially as the trade dispute with the US continues.

US farmers are facing significant challenges as they lose their largest overseas market, which accounted for nearly half of their soybean exports. Even Pay, director of agriculture research at Trivium China, remarked, "We’re in uncharted territory in terms of a complete absence of Chinese buyers for the harvest that is currently coming in."

Despite the current situation, there is still hope for US soybean exports later in the season. Some analysts predict that China may resume purchases in January, with potential shipments reaching 8.5 million metric tons for the marketing year 2025-26. However, without a breakthrough in trade negotiations, US farmers risk substantial losses as Chinese buyers continue to source from Brazil and Argentina.

Trade talks between US and Chinese officials are expected to take place later this month, and the soybean trade is likely to be a crucial topic. As the situation develops, both countries are navigating a complex landscape of tariffs and trade strategies, with the soybean market serving as a key bargaining chip in the ongoing trade war.

For now, US farmers face an uncertain harvest season as China increasingly relies on South American soybeans to meet its demands.