The Risk of a New Ethiopian-Eritrean War Is Growing

The Risk of a New Ethiopian-Eritrean War Is Growing

Changing dynamics in Tigray could erode the current balance of uncertainty.

People walk through an intersection in Mekele, Ethiopia on April 2. October 21, 2025, 8:00 AM Comment icon View Comments ( )

For more than a year, another catastrophic war between Eritrea and Ethiopia has appeared imminent. Seasoned experts and some political figures have repeatedly raised the alarm, citing the seemingly irreconcilable differences between the leaders of the two states, escalating rhetoric, and military mobilizations as the most ominous signs.

So far, mutual uncertainty has helped keep the peace. But recent developments in Ethiopia’s Tigray region may further erode this fragile balance and trigger a conflict.

For more than a year,