PITTSBURGH: Those who rise to power through a coup often fall by the same means.

That is one of the takeaways from events in Madagascar, where on Oct. 14, 2025, the military seized power after weeks of protests largely driven by Gen Z. Ironically, it was the same elite military unit that helped bring Andry Rajoelina, former mayor of the capital Antananarivo, to power in a March 2009 coup that now supported anti-government protesters and ultimately forced the president to flee.

I lead a research team that compiles the Colpus Dataset of coup types and characteristics, and have written on the history of coups d'état from 1946 through 2025.

Our data suggests that even as coups have declined globally overall, coup risk remains comparatively high in Africa. Since 2020, the continent has seen

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