From the pundits to the oddsmakers to the actual NBA talent scouts, the consensus is unwavering: Dallas’ Cooper Flagg is the heavy favorite to be the league’s top rookie.

Flagg, a 6-foot-9 forward from Newport, Maine, by way of Duke, was the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft and has done nothing since June to elicit any second guesses. His ability and his opportunities with the Mavericks strongly suggest Flagg will carry off the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy, presented annually to the Kia Rookie of the Year.

History favors Flagg, too, because 23 No. 1 picks have snagged ROY honors, a rate higher than those claimed by any other draft position. But there’s a caveat to this: With 82 historical winners (including ties) – that’s only a 28% success rate; there exists a 72% chance of someone else

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