Satellite images of Tropical Storm Melissa 7 a.m. Oct. 23, 2025.

Tropical Storm Melissa continues to spin in the central Caribbean Sea and is showing no signs of letting up.

The National Hurricane Center said in an 2 p.m. ET advisory on Oct. 23 that Melissa is located about 200 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph with higher gusts.

Hurricane center forecasters said gradual strengthening is expected over the next day or so, followed by "more rapid intensification" this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane within the next couple of days, and a major hurricane by the end of the weekend, according to the NHC advisory. The storm is forecast to hover near Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next few days.

And with the chances of a monstrous Category 5 storm still in play, the potential is there for Melissa to be "the most impactful storm of the 2025 season," said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza in a Substack post on Oct. 22.

Indeed, if Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like some model forecasts show), "I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic," Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said on X Oct. 22.

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince, according to the hurricane center, as well as Jamaica.

Melissa is expected to bring 6 to 12 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, Oct. 26, with locally higher amounts possible. Forecasters said "significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslide" are expected. Hurricane-strength winds are also possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning Friday, Oct. 24.

Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and western Jamaica are expected to see 2 to 4 inches of rain through Sunday, and flash and urban flooding are possible in these areas. Forecasters said flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.

Forecasters said interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa path tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Tropical Storm Melissa spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.

A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

  • Develop an evacuation plan. If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
  • Assemble disaster supplies. Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering in place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for a possibly lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
  • Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions. Contact your insurance company or agent now and make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance don’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for those. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or the National Flood Insurance Program.
  • Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down a hurricane plan and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
  • Strengthen your home. Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricanes. Trim trees and install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact glass. Seal outside wall openings.

This story has been updated with new information.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Tropical Storm Melissa become a hurricane? See projected path

Reporting by Gabe Hauari and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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