Sir Keir Starmer is braced for more questions about his leadership as Labour looks set to lose grip on a part of Wales that has backed the party for a century.

A Senedd by-election in Caerphilly could be the first solid evidence of how May’s all-outs for the Cardiff parliament are likely to punish both the Prime Minister and Welsh Labour, which has been in power for 26 years.

In Wales, Labour is defending a questionable record on the NHS and education and how it has prioritised the 20mph road law and an expanded Senedd.

Richard Tunnicliffe, the Labour candidate and a children’s publisher, is trapped in a pincer movement between Reform UK and Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru, which is picking up votes from disgruntled Labour voters who in England might vote Green or Liberal Democrat.

“We

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