Americans have been paying more for a cup of coffee after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil, the world’s largest producer, in July.

This week, prices spiked again in the futures market as stocks of Brazilian beans in the US dwindled to their lowest level since 2020 and Donald Trump threatened tariffs on Colombia, another big exporter.

But the president’s trade war obscures another major factor driving up coffee prices: climate change.

Coffee-producing regions in Brazil have been undergoing an intense drought. Over the past month, parts of the state of Minas Gerais, a major coffee-producing region, have recorded about 70% of the average rainfall for this period. Last week, the area got less than half the historic rainfall average, according to the Bloomberg Brazil Weather Analysis.

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