OTTAWA — Relations between Canada and India, strained for years, are beginning to improve. Recent reports indicate that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to visit India for discussions. This invitation is seen as a positive step toward normalizing relations between the two countries.

The diplomatic rift began two years ago when former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Modi's government of being involved in the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist, in June 2023. This accusation led to a series of retaliatory actions, including the expulsion of diplomats and the closure of consulates. The tensions also halted ongoing free trade negotiations.

Alan Kessel, a former Canadian diplomat and senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, commented on the evolving relationship. He stated, "The Nijjar investigation continues, and it should, but Carney’s showing that defending Canadian values doesn’t mean cutting off dialogue."

The thaw in relations began when Carney invited Modi to the G7 summit in Alberta this past summer. Kessel noted that this invitation signaled Canada’s intent to re-engage diplomatically. He emphasized, "It was a clear signal that Canada was back to engaging and not isolating. The lesson from the Meng Wanzhou and the Two Michaels ordeal was simple — when you’re frozen out, you lose leverage."

Kessel also pointed out that amid U.S. trade tensions, it is crucial for Canada to maintain strong diplomatic ties with India, China, and the United States. He remarked, "It’s an easy rapport with Trump when they’re part of the same strategy, but making sure that Canada isn’t left out of the rooms where decisions are made is really key."

Trade relations between Canada and India have also been affected by the diplomatic spat. According to Global Affairs Canada, India ranks as Canada’s seventh-largest trade partner, with bilateral trade nearing $31 billion. From 2023 to 2024, Canadian merchandise exports to India rose by 3.3% to approximately $5.3 billion, while imports from India increased by 7% to around $8 billion.

Canada primarily exports vegetables, mineral fuels, and wood pulp to India, while India’s main exports to Canada include pharmaceuticals, machinery, and electronics. Canada plays a significant role in supplying pulses to India, which has a deficit in legume production.

With trade relations with China facing challenges, strengthening ties with India is viewed as essential for Canada’s agricultural sector. Kessel noted, "Carney may not be chasing friendships; he’s essentially managing power. Engagement is how you protect Canadians and shape outcomes, and you can’t do that from the penalty box."