The Welsh nationalists have won almost half the vote in the Caerphilly by-election, storming to a victory in a seat that has voted Labour for more than a century. The party’s candidate Lindsay Whittle took 47.4 per cent of the vote, with Reform UK’s Llyr Powell taking 36 per cent and Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe on a miserable 11 per cent. As expected, the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats all lost their deposits. Turnout was exceptionally high for a Senedd race: 50.4 per cent at a by-election, despite miserable conditions on polling day.

Caerphilly is an ominous portent for the Welsh parliamentary elections next May. It is sometimes said that the Tories are the most successful party in political history, but Welsh Labour would perhaps be more accurate. Since the 1920s, they hav

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