Farmer Kevin Pelko harvests soybeans from his property in Franklin Township on Oct. 10, 2025, in Indianapolis.
Soybeans glowing in the setting sun in a field in Shawnee County, Kansas, on Oct. 9, 2025 are the fourth most sold agricultural product from the state.

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump leaves for Asia late Oct. 24 eager to resolve a trade war over tariffs with China and reopen the door that slammed shut to the United States' third-largest market for agricultural products as American farmers and global financial markets nervously await the result.

Trump's overseas trip comes as the U.S. government shutdown stretches into a fourth week with no end in sight and as the second-term Republican president threatens to nearly triple tariffs on Chinese imports on Nov. 1 unless he reaches a new trade deal with the country. China's retaliatory taxes have halted key U.S. imports such as soybeans and restricted the sale of rare earth minerals crucial for electronics such as cellphones and computers.

After several days in Malaysia and Japan, Trump plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping when he is in South Korea at the end of his trip Oct. 30. Trump has spoken optimistically about reaching a deal as U.S. farmers fear drastically lower prices for the fall harvest.

Here is what you need to know about what the trip means for Trump, tariffs and trade:

Trump imposed tariffs, which provoked China to retaliate

Trump settled on a 57% tariff on Chinese imports after a series of fits and starts during the opening months of his second administration that rattled global financial markets. He also imposed tariffs on countries worldwide.

Raising money, pressuring China into a trade deal to import more U.S. goods and encouraging manufacturers to move jobs back to the United States were part of Trump’s strategy.

The Chinese initially retaliated with 34% taxes on U.S. goods, which made products such as soybeans too expensive to buy. China then ratcheted up the pressure by announcing restrictions on the export of rare earth minerals.

Trump responded with a threat to raise tariffs to 157% on Nov. 1 if the two countries don’t reach a trade deal for more reasonable terms. He acknowledged such a high rate could end trade temporarily between the countries.

“At a certain point if they pay enough tariffs, it's almost like saying, ‘We don't do business with you,’” Trump told reporters Oct. 20.

Worldwide financial markets plunged after Trump’s tariff announcement April 2. The markets tumbled again Oct. 10 when Trump repeated his threat of huge tariffs on China. But the markets recovered from the volatility, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq each showing double-digit growth for the year through Oct. 23.

U.S. imports from China cut in half during trade war

A lack of U.S.-China trade risks defeating the purpose of tariffs: raising money.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank, projected that a 60% tariff on China would carry a face value of $2.4 trillion in revenue to the Treasury over a decade. But the committee projected that rate would raise no more than $300 billion over a decade and perhaps cause a $50 billion loss for U.S. coffers because trade behavior would change to avoid the higher taxes.

Monthly trade has already been cut in half during the trade war launched April 2. Chinese imports totaled $41.6 billion in January and dropped to $19 billion in June, according to the Federal Reserve.

But Abiel Reinhart, an economist at J.P. Morgan, said that the "most likely outcome" of the trade talks between Trump and Xi will avoid additional 100% U.S. tariffs on China and that "export controls on both sides will be made permissive enough so that they don't become an export embargo."

Trump hopes to complete a trade deal with China

Trump has voiced optimism about reaching a trade deal with Xi – but with the caveat that he might not.

"I think we’ll make a deal," Trump said Oct. 20. "They threatened us with rare earths, and I threatened them with tariffs."

Trump has already completed trade deals with South Korea and Japan, two of the other countries the president will be visiting on his Asia trip.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer traveled Oct. 22 to Malaysia to continue negotiations with their Chinese counterparts. Bessent told reporters before leaving that curbing software exports would be an option but would be coordinated with economic allies Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom,

"I will confirm that everything is on the table, that we are going into the negotiations with good intentions with great respect,” Bessent said. “The Chinese have put these rare earth export controls not only on the U.S. but on the whole world, and if these export controls, whether it is software, engines or other things happen, it will likely be in coordination with our G7 allies."

'Maybe it won't happen': Trump warns Senate Republicans of China deal

Despite Trump's optimism, he cautioned Senate Republicans at a Rose Garden lunch Oct. 21 that a deal with China might not materialize.

“Certainly there are a lot of people that are waiting for it,” Trump said. “Maybe it won't happen. Things can happen where, for instance, maybe somebody will say, 'I don't want to meet, it's too nasty.' But it's really not nasty, it's just business.”

Trump had told reporters Oct. 16 that he has a "great relationship" with Xi, but "sometimes it gets testy because China likes to take advantage of people." Trump said the relationship would be "fine."

"And if it's not, that's OK too," Trump said. "You have to do and go where the punches are thrown."

Tense relations between the leaders are nothing new. Trump hosted Xi at his Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago, in April 2017 but came away without any commitments on economic issues or dealing with North Korea.

In 2018, Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods including 10% on alumimum, 30% on solar panels and electric vehicles, and 25% on steel and nearly everything else. But he complained the Biden administration granted exceptions to the tariffs so they weren’t collected as aggressively.

“We had presidents that allowed China and other countries to get away with murder,” Trump told reporters Oct. 20. “We're not going to allow that.”

China: 'We are not afraid' of a trade war

China's formal responses in the trade war have been measured. But the spokesperson for China's Commerce Ministry urged the United States on Oct. 11 "to promptly correct its wrong practices."

"Willful threats of high tariffs are not the right way to get along with China," the spokesperson said. "China’s position on the trade war is consistent: We do not want it, but we are not afraid of it."

The ministry urged the United States to continue negotiations to resolve disputes for a sustainable trade relationship.

"If the U.S. insists on going the wrong way, China will surely take resolute measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests," the spokesperson said.

China is third-largest customer for U.S. agriculture and tops for soybeans

Trump imposed tariffs in part because of his concern for U.S. trade deficits − sending more money abroad for imports than it receives at home for exports. The United States spent $295.5 billion more on Chinese goods than it sold in 2024, according to the U.S. Trade Representative.

But U.S. sales withered in the trade war. China's retaliatory tariffs on soybeans made the previous No. 1 U.S. agricultural export uncompetitive against rival sellers from Argentina and Brazil. Trump called China's tariffs "an Economically Hostile Act" in a social media post Oct. 14.

U.S. agricultural sales to China totaled $24.4 billion in 2024 and had been higher in recent years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Soybeans accounted for more than half last year's total, at $12.6 billion.

“Trade wars are harmful to everyone, and these latest developments are deeply disappointing at a moment when soybean farmers are facing an ever-growing financial crisis,” said Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association.

Trump is aware of farm concerns and said he is fighting for them.

“I want (China) to buy soybeans,” Trump told reporters Oct. 20. “They stopped buying our soybeans because they thought that was punishment, and it is punishment to our farmers, but we're not going to allow that to happen.”

Supreme Court to hear arguments about Trump's tariffs Nov. 5

The Supreme Court will hear arguments Nov. 5 to decide the fate of Trump's worldwide tariffs in what legal experts said could be the blockbuster case of the year.

The case will help set guidelines for Trump’s aggressive assertion of presidential powers.

Trump invoked the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a law historically used to impose economic sanctions and other penalties on foreign enemies, to set tariffs worldwide. But two lower courts ruled that he overstepped his authority.

"The statute bestows significant authority on the President to undertake a number of actions in response to a declared national emergency, but none of these actions explicitly include the power to impose tariffs, duties, or the like, or the power to tax," the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit said in its 7-4 decision Aug. 29.

Trump has said repeatedly that the United States faces an "economic disaster" unless the tariffs remain in place.

"We have a big case coming up in the Supreme Court, and I will tell you that's one of the most important cases in the history of our country, because if we don't win that case, we will be a weakened, troubled financial mess for many, many years to come," Trump told reporters Oct. 15. "If we do (win), we're going to be the most powerful economic country in the world."

The president has said he may be in the audience for the Supreme Court oral arguments − a first for a sitting commander-in-chief. They are set for the morning after 2025's Election Day for voters in Virginia, New Jersey, California, New York City and other cities and states around the country.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump heads to Asia aiming for trade deal with China. Could farmers lose a key customer?

Reporting by Bart Jansen, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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